Mingo

everyday can be a domingo

Making a trend prediction

Here’s a nice 10 point reminder I wanted to save of tools John Grant has listed to make a trend-prediction presentation:

“1. Fashionability: looking at what is in the American term “trendy” or “cool”…. (The only catch being discerning which avant-garde trends will go mainstream, or prove lasting).

2. “Say goodbye too”: I’ve often found it’s sharper and more revealing to look at what we wont be doing in future. I once predicted we’d “say goodbye to luggage” (because of the risks and costs associated with travel, ideas would travel more than people).

3. the remake: the recent return to 3D cinema would have been a great thing to predict (most predictions on the future of games ten years ago saw new fangled interfaces like the hologram, or the virtual reality headset, but not this).

4. Sci-fi. I predict that in future we will wear data tags and these will shape what we can access – for instance whether we are given access to shops, clubs, offers. The killer application will be in dating and socialising (I don’t know if this will happen… but it’s horrific enough as a prospect to make good sci-fi!).

5. Logical conclusions of long running changes. For instance I once predicted to Coca Cola that they (as the American Dream brand) could start to struggle in The Chinese Century.

6. Cross-pollinate. My suggestion back to the TV company was that instead of hiring me as trends analyst, that we convene a forum of leading innovators from different creative industries (you know what the ‘in colour’ will be for 2012 if you work in fashion – because you are already ordering the fabric).

7. Counter trends. Take a dominant trend and reverse it. For instance the recent American trend to “Domestic Goddess” was a natural counter-reaction to the last 50 years of feminism.

8. Curation. Pick any old theme and bombard blog readers or clients with current examples. (The insight being that we really learn from and copy the examples, not the general themes).

9. Combination. Take the client field plus a trend from another sector and create a new hybrid. For instance I can imagine iPhone style “apps” being added to my internet bank account?

10. The underlying pattern. This is the only type of trend that genuinely interests me – and is what I’ll mainly cover in my upcoming bank presentation. “Co-opportunity” (the book I brought out last year) was about one such trend: a new pattern of collaboration in networks (social networks, but also in real communities) – taking in examples as diverse as Obama’s election campaign, microcredit and crowd sourcing.”

fuente: coopp.net

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